QB · CIN · #9
Only 8 games in 2025 — availability is the headline.
Dynasty Value Score (DVS)
6,168
Range 5,602–6,702
Based on 2025 production and our 2026 projection In-season usage moved the score inside this range.
Proven QB in his prime — production and runway both hold.
DVS is our model view, scored on Engine-default half-PPR — not a guaranteed price in your league. Bye weeks and schedule strength are left out on purpose.
2026 total FP
101.2 pts
20.2 PPG
1361 pass yds · 11 pass TD · 48 rush yds
Week 6 projection
Bye
No game this week
History starts Preseason 2026.
Why this DVS moved off a raw projection.
Durability ×0.95
2 of last 3 seasons under 15 games.
Process ×0.98
Process residual (not a second production percentile).
Org environment ×1.02
Team pass/rush volume vs league — scheme residual, not a second projection.
Burrow threw for 1,361 yards and 11 TDs in 2026, ranking QB4 through 5 games. Burrow’s recent seasons have been interrupted by calf and wrist issues — availability, not arm talent, is the dynasty swing factor. 2025 stopped at 8 games; staying on the field is the swing factor. That's a buy-low window if the price still reflects the rough year, not the recovery.
Dynasty notes from our blog that mention Joe Burrow.
Is Dak Prescott a Dynasty Buy-Low at 33?
Dak Prescott's passing yards climbed from 175 to 316 while his scoring fell, and he ranks QB19 on our dynasty board next to C.J. Stroud. Here is why the dip looks like a buying chance for contenders.
Dynasty Waiver Wire Targets: After Week 4
Carolina and Kansas City are on bye, Washington's quarterback job is open again, and both Cincinnati stars are banged up. Five names for this week's claims.
Monday Morning QB: Week 4
Drake Maye answered two bad games with the week's best quarterback line, three passers threw 158 times without a win, and our top four quarterbacks all missed.
Biggest Overreactions of Week 3
Four Week 3 takes the box score doesn't back, plus the one matchup call from our preview that actually held up.
Chase Brown Wants to Stay in Cincinnati — Will the Bengals Pay Him?
Chase Brown finished RB9 on a cheap rookie contract and is now seeking an extension as the running back market resets. Here's his dynasty value heading into 2026.
Is Joe Burrow's Dynasty Price Finally Right After the Turf Toe Discount?
Joe Burrow's dynasty price is lower than it's been in years after a turf toe surgery wiped out half his season. Here's why that's the buying window.
Justin Herbert Keeps Getting Overlooked — What's the Market Missing?
Justin Herbert played through a broken hand in 2025 and still finished QB10. Here's why the market keeps underrating one of dynasty's steadiest quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts Enters a Reboot Year — Is His Dynasty Price Still Fair?
Jalen Hurts lost his top receiver and his fourth offensive coordinator in six years. Here's an honest look at his dynasty value heading into 2026.
Lamar Jackson Is 29 — Is the Rushing Floor Starting to Crack?
Lamar Jackson finished QB20 in an injury-wrecked 2025. Here's an honest look at whether it's a one-year dip or the start of a real decline.
Should You Believe the Jaxson Dart Hype in Dynasty?
Dart posted 24 total touchdowns as a rookie without his WR1 or RB1. Public QB rankings still have him outside the top 20. NextDyne's model doesn't.
Is Ja'Marr Chase Untouchable in Dynasty Trades?
Ja'Marr Chase owns the top Dynasty Value Score of any receiver. Here's whether that makes him a true untouchable, or just the best asset with a price.
Is Patrick Mahomes a Safe Dynasty Pick After ACL Tear?
Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL and LCL in December. Here's what his recovery timeline means for his dynasty value heading into 2026.
Half-PPR points
101.2
PPG
20.2
Rank so far
QB4
Key stats
2026 week shape
3/5 Boom 60%
0/5 Bust 0%
Boom is 20+ half-PPR. Bust is under 5.
| Season | Finish | Half-PPR FP | PPG | Pass yd | Pass TD | Rush yd | Rush TD | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | QB4so far | 101.2 | 20.2 | 1361 | 11 | 48 | 1 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | QB29 | 134.5 | 16.8 | 1809 | 17 | 41 | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | QB3 | 372.8 | 21.9 | 4918 | 43 | 201 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | QB25 | 147.2 | 14.7 | 2309 | 15 | 88 | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | QB4 | 350.7 | 21.9 | 4475 | 35 | 257 | 5 | — | — | — |
| 2021 | QB8 | 314.2 | 19.6 | 4611 | 34 | 118 | 2 | — | — | — |
| 2020 | QB25 | 173.7 | 17.4 | 2688 | 13 | 142 | 3 | — | — | — |
Career arc
Dashed bar is the 2026 Engine projection, not a completed season.
| Week | Half-PPR FP | Opp | Script | Pass | Rush | Rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W5 | 24.6Boom | MIA | 63 plays · 51% pass | 190 / 4 TD | 10 | 0 |
| 2026 W4 | 23.7Boom | JAX | 69 plays · 78% pass | 428 / 1 TD | 6 / 1 TD | 0 |
| 2026 W3 | 22.6Boom | PIT | 55 plays · 67% pass | 282 / 3 TD | 13 | 0 |
| 2026 W2 | 16.2 | HOU | 54 plays · 57% pass | 207 / 2 TD | -1 | 0 |
| 2026 W1 | 14.2 | TB | 62 plays · 57% pass | 254 / 1 TD | 20 | 0 |
Weekly Half-PPR
Hover a week for the total.
Week 5 Engine grade
Projected 19.6 · scored 24.6 half-PPR · inside the floor–ceiling band. Miss -5.0.
Those opponents
Pass yards they allowed per game in 2026, vs league. Plus is easier.
Snap share
2025 offense · 87.8% mean
pass-attempt share
Hover a week for the share.
Pass-play participation
87.5%
2025· share of the team’s dropback plays this player was on the field for. Presence, not a charted route rate.
Advanced (2025)
Durability
R1 (1 overall) QB · that slot hit at 39.5% in 2010–2023 classes (n=43; contributor 62.8%). Window is the first three NFL seasons.
2026 season to date · Next Gen Stats · ranks among NGS sample Full table
4th of 38
27th of 38
10th of 38
26th of 38
Similar age, draft capital, and role — context for outcome bands, not a second DVS.